C-Store Seminar
May/June 2002
Pricing
Anomalies
in the Wholesale Petrol
Market
As Garth Symington, General Manager
of APADA, noted in his introduction, "this is an emotional subject."
Three experienced and knowledgeable speakers presented very diverse
views as they tried to explain how the market works and what causes
the perverse movements in the price of petrol. If they don't know, no-one
does. Their presentations were followed by a lively discussion with
plenty of audience participation at the end.
Jim Lamb is both President of the Petroleum
Marketers Association of Australia and Managing Director of Horizon
Petroleum, an independent retail chain in Melbourne. His main message
was that the industry players do not seem to understand the structure
of the market and therefore choose the wrong strategies.
Jim went back to fundamentals and posed
basic questions for marketers:
1.
Is the product I sell unique?
2. Is the market in which I operate
discretionary?
3. Is the market in which I operate
growing?
4. Is the product I sell different
to that of my competitors?
In the wholesale petrol market the
answers are clear NOs. Therefore, the fight for market share is futile
and destabilizing. Using an entertaining analogy with gold fish in a
pond, Jim asked that the space be shared.
"If I put 100 Goldfish in a bowl
and then connect another bowl of equal size, so the fish can travel
freely between the two bowls, they share the space. Our fish bowl is
the petroleum industry. What the fish have worked out and what we have
not, is that other fish have a right to exist. No fish tries to take
up more room. They just cruise around, sharing the space." Jim
Lamb
Chris Mapstone, Managing Director of Tri-State
Petroleum Victoria, is a fuel importer and marketer, and knows the
price of fuel. His highly factual presentation dismembered the
price to account for its variation:
ª Platt's price for the
product
ª Premium for quality
ª Pricing period and
delivery time to Australia
ª Freight and International
rates
ª Port charges and
backhaul opportunities
ª Exchange rate against
the US$
ª Wharfage
ª Insurance
ª Loss
ª Storage and local
costs
Chris made an important distinction
between anomaly and volatility.
"Anomaly is a variation from the
common rule
Volatility is a variation driven by competition" Chris Mapstone
In doing so, it was clear how difficult
it is to understand the market on any given day. However, terminal gate
pricing should show when anomalies occur.
Tony Cudmore is Government Relations
Adviser with Mobil Oil Australia. Formerly with the Australian Institute
of Petroleum and adviser to Jeff Kennett, Tony is familiar with controversy.
Tony's explanation of Mobil's pricing
mostly agreed with Chris's list of factors. However, he acknowledged
that Mobil franchisees receive price support when requested to maintain
their competitiveness in the market. He also acknowledged in question
time that this discounting contributes to the magnitude of the volatility.
His main message was that price movements are the result of competition
between all suppliers.
"People react rationally to an
irrational environment." Tony Cudmore
Jim later posed the challenge to franchisees
to "take the hit" like independent retailers during periods
of discounting.
"If we are better retailers we
should we should survive and we have a right to exist." Jim Lamb
This drew loud applause. Tony was not
necessarily in complete disagreement.
"No-one has a right to be in the
market if they can't compete." Tony Cudmore
However, Tony defended the oil company's
right to respond to competition through selective price support. Tony
also emphasised the problems created for oil companies by government
regulations, in particular the inconsistency of applying the Sites Act
to the majors and not to Woolworths/Liberty.
The argument - price support is predatory
v. price support is competitive - is still not settled. According to
Jim Lamb, this is due to the failure of trade practices legislation.
"The ACCC (Australian Competition
and Consumer Commission) cannot act unless a number of independents
are forced out of business and this can be directly attributed to selective
price discounting." Jim Lamb
But the ACCC also has to take into
account the market outcomes for consumers who are annoyed by volatility
but benefit from the fight.
"Retail competition in Australian
metropolitan markets is amongst the most intense in the world, and petrol
prices (pre and post tax) are among the lowest in the world." Tony
Cudmore
Maybe they would also benefit from
a bit of customer focus.
"When you go back to your service
stations, or to your corporate office, start focussing on the customers
you have, not on the ones you could get. Allow your competitors to have
their share. Look to improve your performance and service to your customers.
You will know who your customers are because they are at your place."
Jim Lamb
Headline: Winning Edge in Carwash
Introduced by Tony Stephens, founder
of the Australian Car Wash Association, two expert speakers presented
the seminar: "Winning Edge in Carwash", highlighting opportunities,
challenges and strategies, and presenting the critical factors for site
analysis.
Martin
Dowling, Managing Director of Car Kleen Australia, presented some
staggering statistics.
ª In Europe, on average,
there are 2,750 cars for every car wash machine, ranging from 1,400
in Norway and Denmark to 5,800 in the Czech Republic.
ª In the United States
there are 1,600 cars per car wash machine.
ª In Asia, car numbers
range from 1,200 in Japan to 16,000 in Malaysia.
ª In Australia the
average number of cars per car wash machine is 16,100.
Mr Dowling said that, even allowing
for factors such as dated perceptions of theft and damage, only one
in ten Australian car owners is currently considering a car wash. This
represents an enormous growth opportunity for the Australian industry,
which Mr Dowling said could cope with a number of new participants.
Mr Dowling gave delegates some insight
into the factors that are important for locating and promoting a car
wash facility.
"There is more to running a car
wash business than a machine."
To determine if a site is suitable
you need to assess both the local rea and the actual location. With
a Detailed Area Analysis that takes into account traffic conditions,
the community, the demographic, the vehicle fleet composition, and the
extent of competition, you can find out if you are in the right area.
With a Detailed Site Analysis that takes into account size, access,
and visibility you can find out if your site is suitable. Fortunately,
most manufacturers can help with templates.
If there is an opportunity for a car
wash, there are a number of types to choose from - automatic, semi-automatic,
self serve/DIY, hand wash, and mobile. In this, you need to know your
customer.
Once selected, branding must be clear,
bold and clean, and all signage should reflect the brand. Keep the site
clean and easy to use to foster customer relations. Customers want safety,
a consistent standard, courteous service and knowledgeable staff. Make
the best of the grand opening, and maintain customer loyalty through
ongoing promotions and offers.
"Customers of all types recognise
quality and service and are prepared to pay for it."
Tony Stephens supported Martin Dowling's
call for a cohesive industry approach through an industry accreditation
program, and the time, money and energy needed to achieve it.
Whereas Mr Dowling focussed on the
Australian scene, Phil Braziel, International Sales Manager for Ryko,
presented a large number of innovative ideas from overseas. After presenting
his own staggering statistics - the top wash in Europe costs A$30 -
Mr Braziel took delegates on a tour of the world's best car wash marketing
programs, signage and promotions.
In the United States, for example,
adding coloured foam can increase sales by 30% by moving customers from
lower programs to the top wash. Adding fragrance and colour has the
same impact, by changing the perceived value in the wash options on
offer. Growth can be generated from a simple reminder at the console.
When the operator asks the question, "Would you like a car wash
today?" sales increase immediately 5-10%.
Signage that is fun and attractive,
and delivers an appealing message such as addressing appearance and
protection is effective.
Simple ideas work well, such as the
postcard-sized picture of a sponge with an introductory offer on the
reverse.
As a general rule, however, don't discount
the car wash, but offer other tie-in products such as air fresheners
and car care products.
Strong colours on the forecourt and
in the store can deliver a clear crisp message.
For opening day, find a catchy theme
to emphasise.
"Overall, I'd like to see more
interaction with the customer." Phil Braziel