The report, Fuel for thought, came as the result of one-year discussion by the Future Fuels Forum (FFF), convened by the CSIRO. At the forum, leading industry, community and government bodies together examined a range of plausible scenarios for implementing a sustainable transport fuel mix to 2050.
"The future price of oil is uncertain," said John Wright, director of CSIRO's Energy Transformed Flagship.
"The forum's scenario modelling shows that if oil production peaks, prices could climb as high as AUD 8 per litre by 2018 in the most extreme case. This outcome could result in significant social impacts that are likely to adversely affect low income Australians."
Dr Wright said this bleak projection could be a catalyst for early action on the development and roll-out of alternative fuel options as well as low emission vehicle technologies.
Australia's transport fuel mix, he added, would be forced to change in response to challenges such as climate change and soaring oil prices.
"The forum believes Australia's fuel mix will shift in the near term to include the expanded use of diesel, gaseous fuels such as LPG and hybrid electric vehicles, with even greater diversity beyond 2020 that might include hydrogen, synthetic fuels from coal or gas and advanced biofuels that will not impact food production," Dr Wright said.
"Securing access to affordable and sustainable fuel underpins Australia's economy and way of life and as a nation with relatively high vehicle use, we are vulnerable to the economic, environmental and social impacts of rising oil prices and rising temperatures."
He said: "CSIRO and the forum participants hope 'Fuel for thought' will assist in advancing the debate on Australia's transport fuel needs by providing strategic input to decision makers in industry and government on the options that will need their careful consideration and further research."
A detailed technical discussion of the modelling conducted by CSIRO on behalf of the FFF is available in the report, Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia. (Reprinted courtesyT&L News15/07/2008)